Why a three-month weekly horizon
In a Swiss SME, liquidity does not follow the balance sheet: a profitable year can still include weeks when the current account drops below your safety threshold. The balance sheet and income statement look at closed periods; cash, by contrast, follows payment dates, customer delays, supplier deposits, and tax deadlines that do not line up with month-end close.
The 13-week cash forecast—often called a rolling cash forecast—covers roughly one quarter at weekly granularity. It does not replace the annual budget or long-term treasury plan, but it fills the operational gap: week by week, it shows when expected receipts will arrive and when salaries, VAT, tax instalments, leasing, and planned investments will go out.
For owners, part-time CFOs, and trust firms advising SME clients, this tool bridges ordinary accounting and day-to-day decisions: defer a purchase, negotiate a deposit, draw on a credit line, or send a reminder before a bank penalty kicks in.
13 weeks, month, or year: what each is for
Not every horizon answers the same questions. In practice, combine them and keep the 13-week rolling view as the operational dashboard updated every week.
| Tool | Typical horizon | Question it answers | Update frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| Budget / annual plan | 12 months | Revenue targets, margins, strategic investments | 1–2 times per year (quarterly review) |
| Monthly cash flow | 3–12 months by month | Aggregated trend, bank covenants, board presentations | Monthly |
| 13-week forecast | 13 weeks (rolling) | Weekly cash balance, imminent gaps, payment priorities | Weekly (15–30 minutes with up-to-date data) |
| «Live» bank balance | Today | Immediate availability, but no view of outflows already committed | Daily |
The advantage of 13 weeks is alignment with the typical fiscal and social calendar for Swiss SMEs: many VAT and contribution deadlines cluster on a quarterly basis, while payroll and suppliers follow weekly or monthly rhythms. A «smooth» accounting month can hide two critical weeks if three large invoices slip into the same window.
Anatomy of the weekly model
An effective sheet stays simple: opening balance, movements by category, closing balance. Accuracy improves when each line has a cash settlement date (when money actually moves), distinct from the invoice date.
Expected inflows
- Customer receipts: invoices issued + pipeline with probability (e.g. 80% for confirmed orders, 50% for offers under negotiation)
- Expected VAT refunds and tax credits (with a realistic credit date)
- Customer advances, project deposits, recurring fees
- Use of credit lines or capital increases only if already approved—not as an implicit «buffer»
Expected outflows
- Net salaries and expense reimbursements (usually month-end or fixed dates)
- Social charges: OASI/IV/EO/ALV, occupational pension (BVG/LPP), accident insurance (UVG/LAA), category funds where applicable
- Suppliers, leasing, rent, subscriptions, mortgage instalments
- VAT due, corporate profit tax instalments (capital companies), salary withholding tax (Quellensteuer) where due, and direct tax instalments
- Approved investments and dividends
Each week calculate: opening balance + inflows − outflows = closing balance. The closing balance for week n becomes the opening balance for week n+1. Highlight in red weeks below the agreed minimum threshold (e.g. two weeks of fixed costs or the minimum required by the bank).
Swiss calendar: what not to forget in the forecast
Accounts kept under Swiss standards (Swiss GAAP/FER or micro-GAAP) provide the historical base; the forecast translates that base into payment dates. Common errors come from confusing booked revenue with cash collected, especially with 30/60-day customers or project-based work.
VAT: under the effective reporting method, reporting is generally quarterly (filing and payment within 60 days of period end; deadlines appear in the FTA ePortal). In the model, enter the estimated amount for the period and the actual payment date, not the sales accrual month. With net tax rates, reporting is generally semi-annual; with flat rates, generally quarterly; monthly or annual periods are possible if agreed with the FTA—adapt the forecast accordingly.
Payroll and contributions: net pay often leaves on the last working day of the month; social contributions may be paid monthly or quarterly depending on the insurer and volume. Include thirteenth salary, bonuses, and overtime separately when approved, in the week they are actually paid.
Taxes: corporate profit tax instalments (federal, cantonal, municipal) follow notices from the tax authority; enter them as fixed items on the stated dates. For partnerships or sole proprietors, coordinate income tax instalments with your adviser to avoid double-counting between private and business.
Seasonality: sectors with summer or year-end peaks, sites shut in February, or public projects with progress-payment (SAL) schedules need explicit assumptions on collection weeks—not a flat monthly average spread evenly.
Real data: linking forecast and accounting
A credible rolling forecast is fed by numbers already in your accounting system, reducing manual estimates and mismatches with the trial balance.
| Source | Use in the 13-week model |
|---|---|
| Bank statement / bank reconciliation | Actual opening balance; check receipts and payments for the closed week |
| Customer and supplier due-date schedules | Due dates on open invoices; aging to estimate average delays by customer class |
| Confirmed orders / projects | Future revenue not yet invoiced, with billing milestones |
| Personnel cost | Payroll run-rate, approved variables, social charges from periodic postings |
| Recurring commitments | Leasing, rent, SaaS, insurance—aligned to the debit date |
Software such as Accountex centralises receivables and payables, balances, and due-date schedules: exporting or viewing open items by due date speeds up the weekly update and keeps the general ledger and treasury forecast consistent. The goal is not penny-perfect accuracy, but early identification of negative weeks with a transparent margin of error.
Operating rhythm: the rolling cycle
1. Close the past week
Compare forecast vs. actual bank movements. Note recurring variances (e.g. customers who systematically pay 10 days late) and update default rules in the model.
2. Update the next 13 weeks
Drop the first week that has passed and add a new week at the end, keeping the horizon constant. Enter new invoices issued, orders, and payment decisions taken during the week.
3. Identify gaps and choose levers
For each week below threshold, document the action: targeted reminder, discount for early payment, negotiated delay with a strategic supplier, temporary use of factoring, draw on an already approved business credit line. Avoid «filling» the hole with hypothetical inflows not backed by orders.
4. Communicate concisely
A one-pager for owners and finance teams: minimum projected balance, critical week, three agreed actions. Trust firms can standardise the template across SME mandates, with a deeper monthly review of assumptions.
Scenarios and sensitivity without overcomplicating the sheet
Beyond the base case, two light columns are enough for most SMEs: a prudent scenario (7–14 day delay on collections from main customers) and a stress scenario (non-payment of one significant invoice + VAT payment unchanged).
Base
Contractual due dates and historical average delay by customer segment.
Prudent
Slipped collections; no new unconfirmed orders in the pipeline.
Stress
Loss of a key customer or delay on a progress payment; fixed costs unchanged.
If even the prudent scenario stays above the liquidity threshold, you can focus on growth; if stress drops below zero, you need a written contingency plan before you have to apply it under pressure.
Mistakes that undo the forecast’s value
- —Using income statement revenue instead of actual collection dates, artificially inflating the first weeks.
- —Forgetting VAT and tax items already booked as liabilities but not yet paid.
- —Treating the bank credit limit as available cash without separating limit from utilisation.
- —Updating the model only when «there is time», losing the rolling nature and prevention value.
- —Not separating operating accounts, restricted deposits, and reserve accounts, mixing non-spendable balances.
Weekly checklist (15–30 minutes)
- Reconcile bank balances with accounting through the latest available transaction.
- Update overdue customer items and estimate the collection week for the most material invoices.
- Check payroll and social payments for the next two weeks.
- Enter VAT, tax, and fixed instalment deadlines for the rolling quarter.
- Recalculate the minimum balance over 13 weeks and record actions for weeks in red.
- Archive a dated copy (PDF or spreadsheet) to compare forecast accuracy over time.
With weekly discipline, the 13-week forecast becomes a management habit: fewer surprises on the current account, payroll and tax payments met without stress, and investment decisions based on real liquidity—not accounting profit alone—within the Swiss regulatory and tax framework.